EVERY STORY STARTS AT +300

Long-shot home run research built around the hitters, matchups, and conditions that make tonight interesting.

Today's board unlocks when lineups do. Until then, here's how the last slate actually played out.

Today's picks post around 4 PM ET

Starting lineups aren't confirmed until roughly 3–4 hours before first pitch, so today's board goes live after the 4:00 PM ET run (a second run at 7:00 PM ET catches late lineups).

SHOWING YESTERDAY · Sep 9Graded 15-59Full results
YESTERDAY'S SLATEnot today15-59

THE TASTY SIX — Yesterday

How they graded

One standout pick from every shelf — six home run stories we think deserve the spotlight.

+325
HIT

Luis García Jr. Is the Real Angle at +340

A 92.9 matchup score against Sugano, an opposite-handed matchup, plus Yankee Stadium's 124.8 park factor for home runs — the math lines up cleanly here.

+540
HIT

Bobby Witt Jr.'s Matchup Grade Makes +510 Worth the Extra Reach

Zac Gallen gives up hard contact at an 89.4 clip, and Witt's rate-outcome numbers against that profile grade out at 89.1 — that's the kind of matchup that can justify a bigger swing.

+500
HIT

Zac Gallen's Contact Rate Puts Carter Jensen's +475 in Play

Gallen's leaving the barrel there for hitters to find — a 89.4 contact-allowed grade that's hard to ignore against a leadoff bat leading off the order.

+410
HIT

Kody Clemens Sees Damage Waiting to Happen in Detroit

A 90.2 track-record grade and the No. 3 spot in Minnesota's order line up against a Keider Montero start that's leaking contact at a 26.1 rate-allowed clip.

+850
MISS

Brett Callahan's Matchup Numbers Make the +850 Worth a Long Look

Facing Zebby Matthews from the opposite side, Callahan's contact quality and rate-outcome marks both clear 70 — the kind of matchup data that outpaces this price.

+500
MISS

Mickey Gasper's Matchup Grade Makes +500 a Real Angle

The switch-hitter draws the platoon edge from the right side against Ryan Johnson, and the No. 2 spot means he's not waiting long to see it.

HEAT CHECK

Hitters showing signs of ignition through recent power, quality contact, and underlying metrics.

17 PICKS1-16GRADED YESTERDAY
+500
MISS

Mickey Gasper's Matchup Grade Makes +500 a Real Angle

Mickey Gasper

LAA @ BOS

+700
MISS

Luke Keaschall's Leadoff Spot Keeps the At-Bats Coming

Luke Keaschall

MIN @ DET

+750
MISS

Jase Bowen's Matchup Splits Are Worth a Look at +750

Jase Bowen

WSH @ SD

+525
MISS

Brooks Lee's Track Record Keeps the Barrel Talk Alive

Brooks Lee

MIN @ DET

+600
MISS

Michael Conforto's Track Record Is Doing the Heavy Lifting at +600

Michael Conforto

CHC @ MIL

+700
MISS

Tristan Peters Faces a Wind Blowing Out at +625

Tristan Peters

PIT @ CWS

+900
MISS

Max Clark's Matchup Against Zebby Matthews Is Where the Heat Shows

Max Clark

MIN @ DET

+750
MISS

TJ Rumfield's Lineup Spot Gives +750 Some Real Shape

TJ Rumfield

COL @ NYY

+700
MISS

Brett Baty's Rate Numbers Are Starting to Show Up Against Junk

Brett Baty

NYM @ MIA

+750
MISS

Michael Massey's Matchup Against Gallen Has Real Teeth

Michael Massey

AZ @ KC

+475
MISS

Bryce Harper's Swing Is Humming at Citizens Bank Park

Bryce Harper

HOU @ PHI

+650
MISS

Daylen Lile's Timing Looks Real at +650

Daylen Lile

WSH @ SD

+750
MISS

Ezequiel Duran's Leadoff Spot Keeps the At-Bats Coming at +750

Ezequiel Duran

TEX @ SEA

+800
MISS

Patrick Bailey Gets the Wind at His Back at Camden

Patrick Bailey

CLE @ BAL

+575
MISS

Justin Foscue's Track Record Says the Heat Is Real

Justin Foscue

TEX @ SEA

+400
HIT

Jake Burger's Track Record Is Building a Case at +400

Jake Burger

TEX @ SEA

+950
MISS

Yainer Diaz's Track Record Gives +950 a Bit of Shape

Yainer Diaz

HOU @ PHI

ATTACK ZONE

Power hitters facing pitchers whose recent form, pitch profile, or contact allowed creates an opportunity.

13 PICKS5-8GRADED YESTERDAY
+500
HIT

Zac Gallen's Contact Rate Puts Carter Jensen's +475 in Play

Carter Jensen

AZ @ KC

+410
HIT

Kody Clemens Sees Damage Waiting to Happen in Detroit

Kody Clemens

MIN @ DET

+550
MISS

Salvador Perez Finds the Cracks in Zac Gallen at +500

Salvador Perez

AZ @ KC

+500
HIT

Josh Bell Finds Room to Breathe Against Montero

Josh Bell

MIN @ DET

+650
MISS

Trevor Larnach Finds a Crack in Montero's Armor

Trevor Larnach

MIN @ DET

+525
MISS

Vinnie Pasquantino's Matchup Grade Blows the Doors Off Gallen at +575

Vinnie Pasquantino

AZ @ KC

+400
HIT

Cody Bellinger's Matchup Against Sugano Is Where the Damage Lives

Cody Bellinger

COL @ NYY

+460
MISS

Ryan McMahon Finds the Cracks in Sugano at +500

Ryan McMahon

COL @ NYY

+410
MISS

Austin Wells Finds a Pitcher Leaking Contact at +425

Austin Wells

COL @ NYY

+440
MISS

Fernando Tatis Jr. Sits Atop a Lineup Spot This Matchup Can't Protect

Fernando Tatis Jr.

WSH @ SD

+330
MISS

Oneil Cruz's Power Grades Out Elite Against a Matchup With Cracks Showing

Oneil Cruz

PIT @ CWS

+350
MISS

Brandon Lowe Faces a Matchup With Cracks Showing at +340

Brandon Lowe

PIT @ CWS

+650
HIT

Jackson Merrill's Power Profile Turns +650 Into Real Damage Waiting to Happen

Jackson Merrill

WSH @ SD

LAUNCH CONDITIONS

Matchups where wind, temperature, ballpark, and game conditions could help the ball carry.

13 PICKS5-8GRADED YESTERDAY
+370
HIT

Coby Mayo Gets Real Wind, Real Heat, and a Real Park for It

Coby Mayo

CLE @ BAL

+425
HIT

Chase DeLauter Gets a Camden Sky Built for Carry

Chase DeLauter

CLE @ BAL

+500
MISS

Jo Adell and the Numbers Behind a Camden Fly Ball

Jo Adell

CLE @ BAL

+750
MISS

Brandon Marsh Gets Some Wind at His Back at +700

Brandon Marsh

HOU @ PHI

+575
HIT

The Air at Citizens Bank Is Doing Isaac Paredes a Favor

Isaac Paredes

HOU @ PHI

+575
HIT

Isaac Paredes and a Citizens Bank Sky Worth Watching

Isaac Paredes

HOU @ PHI

+750
HIT

Cam Smith Gets Real Carry at Citizens Bank Park

Cam Smith

HOU @ PHI

+700
MISS

Zac Veen's Launch Conditions Are Doing Some of the Work at +625

Zac Veen

COL @ NYY

+390
MISS

Royce Lewis Gets a Park Factor Nudging the Air His Way

Royce Lewis

MIN @ DET

+390
MISS

Royce Lewis Gets a Park Factor and 80° Air Working Together at Comerica

Royce Lewis

MIN @ DET

+380
MISS

Mickey Moniak's Launch Conditions Are Wide Open at Yankee Stadium

Mickey Moniak

COL @ NYY

+750
MISS

Walker Jenkins Gets Real Wind at Comerica, Even at the Bottom of the Order

Walker Jenkins

MIN @ DET

+575
MISS

Cole Carrigg's Launch Conditions Are Taking Shape at Yankee Stadium

Cole Carrigg

COL @ NYY

SWEET SPOT+300 TO +499

The shorter end of the TPE board — stronger market expectations without leaving long-shot territory.

12 PICKS3-9GRADED YESTERDAY
+325
HIT

Luis García Jr. Is the Real Angle at +340

Luis García Jr.

COL @ NYY

+350
MISS

Pete Alonso: The Power Numbers Justify the Price

Pete Alonso

CLE @ BAL

+420
MISS

Riley Greene's Power Profile Outruns the +420 Price

Riley Greene

MIN @ DET

+420
MISS

Riley Greene's Power Profile Makes +420 Look Underpriced

Riley Greene

MIN @ DET

+410
MISS

Christian Encarnacion-Strand's Power Profile Justifies the Longer Look

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

CLE @ BAL

+330
MISS

James Wood's Skill Profile Makes +330 a Real Angle

James Wood

WSH @ SD

+450
HIT

Drake Baldwin's Power Profile Is the Real Story at +450

Drake Baldwin

TB @ ATL

+460
MISS

CJ Abrams' Track Record Gives +460 a Real Angle

CJ Abrams

WSH @ SD

+390
MISS

Matt Olson's Track Record Makes +390 Look Underpriced

Matt Olson

TB @ ATL

+400
MISS

Randy Arozarena's Matchup Numbers Justify the +400

Randy Arozarena

TEX @ SEA

+320
MISS

Yordan Alvarez's Skill Profile Makes +320 Worth a Longer Look

Yordan Alvarez

HOU @ PHI

+350
HIT

Wilyer Abreu at +390 Is a Real Angle, Not a Reach

Wilyer Abreu

LAA @ BOS

MOONSHOTS+500 TO +699

Bigger prices with a believable path to the seats — where matchup and upside meet opportunity.

10 PICKS2-8GRADED YESTERDAY
+540
HIT

Bobby Witt Jr.'s Matchup Grade Makes +510 Worth the Extra Reach

Bobby Witt Jr.

AZ @ KC

+500
MISS

Dominic Canzone's Track Record Backs a Bigger Swing at +500

Dominic Canzone

TEX @ SEA

+625
MISS

Yohandy Morales' Skill Score Makes +625 a Bolder Price Worth Backing

Yohandy Morales

WSH @ SD

+600
MISS

Dillon Dingler's Track Record Justifies the Bigger Swing

Dillon Dingler

MIN @ DET

+600
MISS

Dillon Dingler's Track Record Makes +600 a Bolder Price Worth Backing

Dillon Dingler

MIN @ DET

+550
MISS

Jonathan Aranda's Full Profile Backs This Bolder Price

Jonathan Aranda

TB @ ATL

+500
MISS

Michael Harris II's Power Profile Makes +500 Worth the Extra Reach

Michael Harris II

TB @ ATL

+475
MISS

Jarren Duran's Matchup Numbers Give +500 Real Shape

Jarren Duran

LAA @ BOS

+500
MISS

Kevin McGonigle's Leadoff Slot Makes the +500 a Bolder Price Worth Backing

Kevin McGonigle

MIN @ DET

+625
HIT

Colt Keith's Matchup Edge Makes the +625 Worth the Extra Reach

Colt Keith

MIN @ DET

GOING NUCLEAR+700 & BEYOND

The longest shots on the board — volatile, unlikely, and interesting enough to make the case.

10 PICKS0-10GRADED YESTERDAY
+850
MISS

Brett Callahan's Matchup Numbers Make the +850 Worth a Long Look

Brett Callahan

MIN @ DET

+850
MISS

Rece Hinds and the Camden Wind Are Pointing the Same Direction

Rece Hinds

CLE @ BAL

+850
MISS

John Peck's Matchup Numbers Give the +850 Some Shape

John Peck

MIN @ DET

+700
MISS

Ty France's Skill Score Makes +700 Worth Buckling In For

Ty France

WSH @ SD

+700
MISS

Rafael Flores Jr. Has the Skill Profile to Punish a +700 Price Tag

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT @ CWS

+700
MISS

Kyle Karros' Park Factor Gives +850 Something to Build On

Kyle Karros

COL @ NYY

+700
MISS

Ben Malgeri's Matchup Numbers Give the +700 Some Real Backing

Ben Malgeri

MIN @ DET

+750
MISS

Brice Turang's Lineup Spot Gives This +750 Room to Breathe

Brice Turang

CHC @ MIL

+850
MISS

Jeremy Peña's Leadoff Spot Gives +850 Something to Work With

Jeremy Peña

HOU @ PHI

+800
MISS

Luis Campusano's Power Profile Gives +800 Some Real Shape

Luis Campusano

WSH @ SD

FROM TPE

Your Tasty Six

Keep the picks that stood out.

Save up to six picks from across TPE and keep them together in My Picks.

End of yesterday's episode · today's posts around 4 PM ET